Betraying the American people: Congress kissing Israel’s ring

Friday, 11 January 2019

Senator Marco Rubio took to Twitter in defense of his sponsored bill in support of Israel. Rubio and others have the right to support Israel as part of their constitutional right to Freedom of Speech. Apparently, Rubio thinks the First Amendment is exclusive to him and those who hold similar views.

His sponsored bill, SB1, if passed will criminalize those who chose to boycott Israel. They don’t even need to take active measures to that end; they would be punished for the mere act of refusing to promise not to engage in BDS (Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions of Israel).

Let’s not be rash here; I’m not arguing for or against BDS. But I am concerned by Rubio’s audacity to sponsor such an indefensible bill and him engaging in Twitter battles to assert his position. His muddling of the discussion is a sorry attempt to earn points for sponsoring the bill even if it fails. As for BDS, I reserve my views on the matter for a future article.

To BDS or not to DBS, that is NOT the question

First, I believe that Schumer, Feinstein, Cardin, and all of the other Jewish members of Congress are patriotic Americans regardless of their support Israel or not. I don’t have to agree with those who are holding the line for the Jewish state, because I respect the fact they are standing up for their people.

I can only imagine how such opposition to Israel can trigger memories of the historical trauma of the Holocaust flooding back as if it happened yesterday. It would be abnormal if it didn’t.

It is human to do all that is in one’s power to prevent a repeat of the unimaginable atrocities committed by the Nazi’s against six million Jews. Any of us would do the same if we were in their shoes. But I don’t have the Holocaust in my past, nor do I need to imagine the killings.

Supporting Palestinians is the mirror image of supporting Israelis. In isolation, supporting Palestinians must not be confused for anti-Semitism

Walid Jawad

I stand witness to the plight of the Palestinian people who are ironically suffering at the hand of the Israeli government at this very moment and for generations. These are people who look like me, have names that sound like my relatives, and the majority of them repeat in Arabic the mantra: justice, right of return, dignity, and peace.

Supporting Palestinians is the mirror image of supporting Israelis. In isolation, supporting Palestinians must not be confused for anti-Semitism. True support of either side compels the rational and ethical person to extend that support to the other group. This reality holds true unless threat of oppression, violence and/or killing of civilians is introduced.

This argument is harder to accept when we approach the issue within the framework of retribution as it triggers an emotional response. However, not accepting this equation keeps Israelis fearful and Palestinians defiant preventing the two from coming to an understanding.

The right and wrong way

As a country, we must stand up to anti-Semitism, this is not up for debate. However, support for the nation of Israel is a political issue independent of racism. Suffice it to say, members of Congress have the right to support Israel as part of their political agenda.

When it comes to non-Jewish members, we all know that such a political agenda is not for the good of Israel as much as it is for the benefit of the politician. Rubio, raised Catholic, has political ambitions. The presidency is a goal, which he has been pursuing. Securing the support of the voting blocks and influential and generous groups is part of the election game.

When that support tramples over citizens’ rights, we can but wonder if they have crossed the line of loyalty and patriotism. Advancing any other nation’s interest above America’s is grounds for suspicion.

The hostage-taking of the American people as collateral in the tug-of-war over building a wall along the southern border with Mexico is only one manifestation of the deplorable acts of US elected officials. Instead of working on resolving their wall differences and reopening the government, a few Senators are working on a bill that would violate American citizens’ constitutional right to free speech.

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The US Senate is working on passing this bill to criminalize the right of Americans to protest Israel. It is true that the American public is in a state of shock over what might turn out to be the most extended government shutdown in US history, but still, they have the capacity to call a foul on this political play.

It is easy to dismiss my accusations and that of others under the false guise of anti-Semitism. Anti-Semitism is not exclusive to the Jewish people. Arab-Americans are Semitic ourselves. If at anytime the nation turns on its Jewish citizens, we will be undoubtedly next.

So if not for altruistic reasons, if not for moral reasons, if not for basic human decency, then for self-preservation. Arab-Americans will never compete with the racism of white supremacist in vilifying Jews. The memory of Charlottesville, VA of last year is still fresh; supremacist marching while chanting the slogan “Jews will not replace us!”

The six-pointed star-spangled banner

While the country is waiting for the Robert Mueller report to reveal whether there was collusion between the Trump election campaign and Russia – whether Russia’s Putin has undue leverage over the president of the United States, Americans are not nearly as outraged as they should when members of Congress pledge their allegiance to Israel by sacrificing American citizens’ fundamental constitutional rights.

These power-hungry politicians are reneging on the oath of office they took to defend the constitution and allegiance to the United States. They are no longer working for the American people; they are only concerned with kissing AIPAC’s ring to increase their reelection bids chances.

Supporters of SB1 are treading on the constitution by violating American citizens first amendment rights. Defeating this bill is not anti-Semitism; it is the patriotic thing to do. 
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Walid Jawad is a former Senior Policy Analyst at U.S. Department of State and a former Washington, DC correspondent. He covered American politics for a number of TV outlets since 1997. Walid holds an undergraduate degree (B.A) in Decision Science and Management Information Systems and a Masters in Conflict Analysis and Resolution. You can follow him @walidaj.

Is the new Congress American enough?

Monday, 7 January 2019

The new 116 Congress brought with it numerous firsts: youngest woman, the first Native American, and many other groundbreaking claims by minorities. Many disenfranchised groups now have a representative at the powerful US Congress.

Among these vanguards are two Muslim-Arab-women: Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, a Palestinian and a Somali respectively. Each claimed for herself a significant part of the American ethos, more than most.

In a country that prides itself on individuality and the opportunities it avails to its citizens, Rashida and Ilhan have done well for themselves. Yet their individual achievements can and should be claimed by those who share their identities. It is a victory for Islam, for Arabs, and for women. This momentous achievement demands a moment of reflection.

No exclusion of mosque from state

The latest Pew Research analysis of the most recent CQ poll on Faith on the Hill revealed the complexity of religious affiliation in Congress. No surprise, the majority of members are Christians, followed by Jewish, Buddhists and then Muslims, with three members.

The percentage of members representation is not reflective of the religious composition in the general population — for instance, non-affiliated Americans, as in atheists, agnostics and those who say “nothing in particular” is 23 percent of the population while there is only one member of Congress who is religiously unaffiliated, Senator Kyrsten Sinema.

Religious representation would have been null and void if it weren’t for the prevalence of religious expressions on the Hill including bills guided by religious beliefs. Chaplins and morning prayers are part of the normal course of business blurring the line between church and state.

The US never wanted war with Islam, but the constant conflicts within the Muslim world confused America’s intent making US interest appear to be predicated on fighting Islam, which it is not

Walid Jawad

The coveted freedom of religion allows for all to pray to the god they want and follow their own interpretation of the belief system they ascribe to; Ilhan wears a Hijab while Rashida doesn’t, both Muslim.

Last year on Ilhan’s account, Congress made an exception for wearing “headgear” for religious reasons, including Hijab, relaxing the 181-year-old ban. A ban that is imposed on its members while on the legislative floor and was put in place in defiance of a British tradition. Further, Rashida was sworn-in on Thomas Jefferson’s copy of the Quran. Islam has its place in America - Muslims around the world see their kin speaking up on their behalf.

As patriotic Americans, Rashida and Ilhan’s Islamic faith combined with their worldview and family connections to Africa and the Middle East will benefit America during a period of global turmoil. The increasingly myopic American worldview must resist complacency and the false comfort of global retreat.

ALSO READ: New Year, new Congress and renewed political disaster for the Middle East

Rep. Tlaib and Rep. Omar are already contributing to that end by being themselves, and since Thursday by leveraging their new podium. They offer the potential of advancing America’s national interest more softly and effectively in regards to the Arab and Muslim worlds. Obviously, neither of them have direct leverage over US foreign policies, but they will be able to offer their views as members of Congress on such matters.

The US never wanted war with Islam, but the constant conflicts within the Muslim world confused America’s intent making US interest appear to be predicated on fighting Islam, which it is not. Rashida and Ilhan will be more effective in pointing out those pitfalls as they are better positioned to insist on avoiding them.

The new face of Arab women

Arab women have stepped in a major way into the limelight of American politics. Without diminishing the accomplishment of the new Lebanese-American member of Congress Donna Shalala, Rashida wore a traditional Palestinian Thobe on her first day on the job creating a twitter buzz with the hashtag #TweetYourThobe. Ilhan with her Hijab and refugee status.

A moment of transformation for Arab women. No longer are they faceless. No longer tirelessly working in the shadows of men as perceived by the outside world. As much as Arabs know the value and sacrifice of the women of their communities, it is beneficial for the world to see first hand what Arab women are capable of achieving.

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Opportunity is knocking on the door of Arab women to rebrand their global image. They are gaining momentum as media shed a light on them in the US. Journalists looking for points of connection have found the story of Saudi Arabia driving to be of interest. Saudi women are taking the wheel literally and figuratively.

I am hopeful for Arab women to be inspired enough to unleash the powers they typical reserve for their nuclear families to include their wider family, their societies.

Your piece of the American pie

If you remove the politics, overlook the dysfunction, and ignore the darker ugly sides, you will find America to be a symbol for basic human aspirations. Now, these aspirations are far from being the reality of American life, yet it strives to achieve the ideals it was built upon.

Although, there isn’t a single American aspect that is most worthy of everyone’s attention, each and every person around the globe has his/her own view of which character is most worthy. In a way, we all claim our share of America - our own piece of the American pie.

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You don’t need to pledge allegiance to the flag to claim a part of American pop culture in TV shows, movies or music. You don’t have to be born in Dallas, Texas to cheer when the Cowboys score a touchdown. As innovative as America is in creating the Internet and social media, creativity is not exclusively an American trait. Steve Jobs, the Syrian-American, gave us Apple and revolutionized our existence with the iPhone.

If America can claim different aspects of different civilizations incorporating it into its culture, every person around the world has a right to claim their own part of the American ethos. Your passport might not be blue but, otherwise, you have the right to claim as much of the inspiring aspects of America as suits you; freedom, responsibility, equality, and innovation being some of the most admirable. 
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Walid Jawad is a former Senior Policy Analyst at U.S. Department of State and a former Washington, DC correspondent. He covered American politics for a number of TV outlets since 1997. Walid holds an undergraduate degree (B.A) in Decision Science and Management Information Systems and a Masters in Conflict Analysis and Resolution. You can follow him @walidaj.

New Year, new Congress and renewed political disaster for the Middle East

Monday, 31 December 2018

Are you ready for the constant hypnotic humdrum of US politics yet? Now that we are counting down to the last 10 seconds of 2018, we reflect on those trivial and pivotal decisions we’ve made.

We are also reminded of the challenges within our communities, nations and perhaps internationally. Of most interest are the decisions and events that define or redefine our lives. For better or worse, when the clock strikes 12, we get a brand new year, but we continue to deal with the decisions we’ve made in 2018 and prior.

The predictive quality of the human mind cannot be overstated. Individuals have daydreams while societies have histories to guide their future. There is no crystal ball for any of us to see the future through, but reviewing the latest events can provide us with what is needed to predict what's to come.

The drumbeat of America’s ever-muddled political saga didn’t stop over the holiday season. The train-wreck that is the White House, Congress, and the Court's continues to unfold in a power play of intrigue. The spillover effect regarding the Middle East is profound. Today, as I review with you a couple of those aspects we can make some predictions and verbalize our hopes. The following is at play:

Perhaps Democrats will tackle immigration reform next in conjunction with pressuring the White House to reverse Trump’s decision to pull all US troops out of Syria

Walid Jawad

White House and the new Congress

The many challenges President Donald J. Trump had with Congress over the almost years are going to pale in comparison to the acrimony to ensue over the next two. The Republican party, which Trump leads, was reinforced by leading the White House, Congress and now more conservative-leaning justices in the Supreme Court.

Since his 2016 inauguration, Trump’s Republican party had control over both chambers of Congress: the US House of Representatives (the lower chamber) and the US Senate (the upper chamber). At the time, the Republican agenda had a number of causes on its platform, but they were unable to repeal and replace Obamacare; the Affordable Care Act of the Obama presidency which Trump promised voters to reverse.

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Republicans also failed to build the wall along the US-Mexico border. Trump repeatedly promised to make Mexico pay for it, but when that failed he turned to Congress demanding to pass a spending bill that includes border wall funding. That too has failed. The current partial US government shutdown is predicated on Trump’s refusal of any spending bill that doesn’t include a $5 billion border wall.

The Republicans, however, were successful in passing a tax reform bill that was packaged as a win for all Americans. The irony is that such a win is skewed towards the rich. Further, the long-term effects will ensure that the middle class will pay a disproportionate portion toward the anticipated revenue deficits the bill will cause the US budget.

Arabs in the House

Those three fights, among other issues, gave Democratic candidates the fuel they needed to win back control of the US House of Representatives in the last midterm elections this past November.

Now that the Republican president is leading a fractured government, he will face far greater challenges to deliver on his promises or push for his Party’s legislative agenda. Many of the new Democratic Congressional Representatives have ridden a wave of diversity in the aftermath of the #MeToo movement and the racial tensions which reached a crescendo last year.

On January 3rd, the new 116th Congress will include the first female-Palestinian-Muslim American Rashida Tlaib and the first female-Somali-Muslim American Ilhan Omar, both Arab-Americans. Donna Shalala, the Lebanese American, rounds out the new cohort of Arab-American members of Congress. The total number of Arab American members of Congress stands at eight, divided equally between the Republican and Democratic parties.

Middle East to the slaughterhouse

We can predict a flurry of activities to come once the new Congress is in place including the much anticipated White House announcement of Jared Kushner’s Middle East plan. But before that announcement, Congress will offer its opinion on Trump’s latest decision to pull the remaining US troops out of Syria and the drawdown to half of the 14,000 troops currently stationed in Afghanistan.

ALSO READ: The curious case of a US government shutdown

The White House Mideast policy trajectory does not bode well for the region. Trump’s strategy of disengagement is counterproductive to the people of the region and goes against US national interests. As a result, America’s partners in the Middle East are finding it increasingly difficult to align their goals with an absent partner.

Case in point, the US has the strategic goal of neutralizing Iran’s expansionist strategy, yet its fighting its own battle in Yemen against al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are fighting Iran’s Houthi loyalists to the detriment of Yemeni people.

Contrarian Democrats

The 116 Congress has already signaled a forward-leaning approach to international dynamics. The US House will aggressively investigate the Trump presidential election’s Russia collision allegations now that Democrats will chair the Intelligence Committee. Further, Democrats will have more input as they chair the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Now that they are taking over the US House of Representatives, the Democrats feel empowered to be more contrarian. Instead of formulating a proactively positive strategy, they confuse their mandate for simple opposition to anything Trump.

This is not a hopeful situation for the US. The Democrats must stop their negative position and start standing for something positive and proactive. The decades-long strategy of opposing the Republicans will not advance the US or its allies, friends, or partners.

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I predict more talk of impeachment, but Trump will avoid the process lest the Special Council Robert Mueller’s investigation yields criminality. The Democrat’s will avoid the urge to initiate the procedures if Nancy Pelosi is voted on as Speaker of the House as expected. She is fully aware that such a move might satisfy a small core of the Democratic constituency but will invite the wrath of a nation. The American people have no appetite for the theatrical indignation of a dysfunctional Congress.

First things first, what will the new Congress do regarding the current government shutdown is of utmost importance as the nation awaits a resolution. If public opinion continues to be against Trump, the Democrats will flex their legislative muscles.

Perhaps Democrats will tackle immigration reform next in conjunction with pressuring the White House to reverse Trump’s decision to pull all US troops out of Syria. My hesitation in listing any predictions lies in Trump’s White House uncanny ability to stir up controversy and create new challenges for itself.
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Walid Jawad is a former Senior Policy Analyst at US Department of State and a former Washington, DC correspondent. He covered American politics for a number of TV outlets since 1997. Walid holds an undergraduate degree (BA) in Decision Science and Management Information Systems and a Masters in Conflict Analysis and Resolution. You can follow him @walidaj.

The cyber war that is raging in your pocket

Wednesday, 19 December 2018

It was 1986 when I first connected to the Net. The modem was an old-fashioned phone handset placed on a cradle that spoke in AOL “handshake” tones.

The long distance call from Dhahran’s KFUPM to Harvard University’s node was transformative, placing me in the middle of a sci-fi novel. I found myself reading a physics research paper unaware of the potential to which that connection was providing.

The next interaction was from Riyadh in the first half of the 1990s over an XT 286 computer. By that time, you could reach other Intranets if you had the necessary information.

Fast forward to Washington DC, 1997, when AOL made the internet accessible in “high” speeds at 56Kbps. “You got mail” was addictive, and the World Wide Web (WWW), those three letters that opened our eyes to a limitless new world.

How did the hopeful advent of the Internet turned from a revolution that overcame human physical limitations of space to the latest frontier of war; cyberwar?

Cyber-armies are becoming part of the composition of any war ready armies. Unlike other units at the ready for when war breaks, cyber-armies conduct warfare around the clock every day

Walid Jawad

The lure

A quest for knowledge was the initial driver; informative and enlightening — instant communication eclipsing the carrier pigeon, horses, postal service, telegram, and fax; instant, easy and cheap.

Our innate voyeuristic tendencies made it addictive. In its infancy, the Internet offered a very wide margin for anonymity. It allowed a person to be whomever they want to be hiding behind a faceless username.

Forums and chat rooms popped up creating a safe space for people to engage in dialogue without censorship. The Internet became a haven for many. It offered a parallel existence with undefined rules and disputed norms. It was a guilty pleasure. Alas, Internet yesteryears are to be remembered nostalgically.

Although we can still operate in some corners of the internet with a cloak of anonymity, it is the exception. Today, our new “www” ID is our Facebook account. Those who had an alter ego carry their real photo are compelled to either recreate their Facebook in their real-life image or adopt that fictitious persona in the real world with great limitations.

Soon enough Facebook algorithms will catch up to users and force their real-life identities onto the platform if it has not already. It’s already the case that governments and businesses troll Facebook to glean insights into people’s “real” lives.

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Spy agencies do it and so do hiring company prior to making their job offer. Before we know it, we won’t need physical passports or driver’s licenses, or credit cards to move around. In fact, the last number of purchases I have made were through my app Wallet by waving my smartphone to the point of sale at the register.

My car’s insurance card is already in the insurance company’s app on my device. And Google knows where I’ve been and can guess where I’m going as soon as I type the first letter of my destination on Maps. I believe my cell phone knows more about me than my wife - heck, I think it even knows me more than I consciously do.

It would be one thing if personal information is contained within the device, but it’s a different issue when my data is marked for attack by unauthorized government spokes and organized hackers.

Governments, businesses, and activists and hackers make it their business to break the defenses we put up to gain access to my information and yours. Our devices are pawns in the greater game of cyberwars although we own them, hackers use them to their advantage.

New cyber-warriors

Espionage, sabotage, propaganda, and economic disruption are all part of the cyberwars battlefield; they are different objectives serving varying needs. Academics are still working on the dichotomy of this cyberwar while the battleground itself and the warring parties are shifting and evolving.

Nevertheless, the overarching understanding seems to that there are two types of actors: Hacktivists and government. Most of us heard of the activist group “Anonymous” while the US government has created its latest US Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM).

Cyber-Armies are becoming part of the composition of any war ready armies. Unlike other units at the ready for when war breaks, cyber-armies conduct warfare around the clock every day. The battlefield is littered with state-sponsored attacks and counterattacks against governments and non-state actors.

Operational aspects of cyberwars make a distinction between two types of targets; one, government controlled and business digital systems, and two, the physical infrastructure controlled by digital systems.

The military is one such physical aspect that would be targeted, power grid and water supplies are other infrastructures. These big systems are matters of national security forcing governments to take proactive steps to guard against them. But are governments taking proactive measures to safeguard against organized attacks targeting the individual?

When we examine cyberspace on the level of individual users, we quickly find that the lack of proactive protection is turning each of us into part-time tech-warriors defending against constant assaults.

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Each must be guarded in anticipation of threats lurking behind unknown links and downloads. All the while, a new bread of cyber warriors are in the making trying to find new and innovative ways to bypass our defenses. They have more than one option to steal our information, either by hacking into our own devices or by hacking into the systems that hold our accounts.

I don’t know about you, but lately, I’ve been receiving an increased number of notices from banks and other businesses informing me that I could be one of the millions of accounts that were compromised. There is no foolproof way to guard against hackers or spy agencies.

The latest Russian digital war against the US targeting voters during the 2016 elections is a daily evolving news item here in the US. We need to be clear; this is only a specific attack that is garnering media attention. Cyber-attacks are happening all the time against all sorts of systems - that is the reality of the cyber existence we live in.

It will be revealing to read the full report provided to the US Senate Intelligence Committee due to be published later this week. The leaked report is claimed to focus on the US 2016 elections, but it goes beyond Russia and the elections to include the role of social media organizations in the Arab world and elsewhere.

Personal information

Each user must be responsible for his/her online security. The problem is most of us don’t know what we need to do to safeguard against the constant barrage of attacks. And when we learn and implement new defenses, attackers find new ways to overcome our efforts.

Cyberwarfare is global, but much of the attacks are personal. Each of us is a soldier or a victim, or a victimized soldier in this war and it starts with your online presence. We mistake companies that provide us services like Facebook, Google, Twitter, Instagram, etc for service providers.

Yes, they do provide a service, but that’s not how they make their billions. Their business model is to provide our attention and information to their clients; we are the product.

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Facebook, Google, and Twitter along with other social media platforms can be trusted as long as their bottom line is dependent on satisfying the users, us. We as users have very limited options to coordinate a response to punish these platforms and compel them to do what is right by us; i.e. to keep our information private as they promise. Our human nature is yet to evolve from the survival of the species in nature to one that has options to prevent being violated in the world of zeros and ones.

The trick is to get these platforms to be proactive in their defense of our information and not merely react to attacks after the damage is done. We know that criminals are always one step ahead of law enforcement, but this is not true on the Internet.

These billion dollar companies can dedicate the resources needed to ensure our protections. This is only one step toward creating a safer environment on the Internet, the rest is incumbent on the individual user to be discriminate in our daily online adventures. And no, there is no African prince who wants to give you millions of dollars. If it’s too good to be true, then it probably isn’t. 

Personal financial options for anticipated global economic slowdown

Thursday, 13 December 2018

Lean in ... the next Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on December 19 can potentially affect your bank account - and you should take notice. If you are wondering if the Fed decision will affect people without a US bank account or living in the US altogether; the simple answer is: if it will affect people in the US, it will most likely affect the global economy.

The effects of the upcoming decision will be far-reaching and deep. One of two outcomes will take place: either the Fed will raise the benchmark rate (anticipated at a quarter percent) or leave it unchanged at its current rate. The only problem is both decisions are fraught with a potentially perilous outcome.

In a nutshell, the US economy has been performing well, while global economic growth is slowing down. The current US economic expansion is the second longest in its history lasting since mid-2009.

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As accurate as that statement may be, the winds of change are starting to shift. The latest stretch of volatile stock market performance caused the S&P to lose 1.5 percent on the year after last week's 4.6 percent drop. The largest single week drop since March. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones had a turbulent ride on Tuesday due to a number of policy and political factors.

Inferring from economic data and gleaning from political dynamics is more of a skillful intuition painting a predictive picture of the future

Walid Jawad

Snapshot of factors

The US economy has been reaping the benefits of the $1.5 trillion tax cut Trump pushed through Congress last December. The accompanying boost in government spending has lead to low unemployment and prompted stronger growth has run its course and is no longer a factor.

The trade wars between the US and China, the two largest world economies, is causing serious uncertainty in the market. When China signaled its willingness to lower the car tariffs down to 15 percent the market was abuzz early in the day this past Tuesday.

A week earlier, the Tuesday prior, Trump send the stock market in a tailspin when he tweeted “I am a Tariff Man,” adding to the uncertainty of the outcome of trade negotiations between the two nations. 

Numbers don’t lie, hindsight being 20/20 it’s easy to pontificate drawing a straight line between cause and effect. It is much harder to project into the future, especially at a time when experts are warning of an upcoming global depression.

Inferring from economic data and gleaning from political dynamics is more of a skillful intuition painting a predictive picture of the future.

The numbers game

The current numbers are reflective of a volatile phase whereby big players are battling the gyrations for profits, while the rest of us are drifting in the seas of an increasingly unstable stock market. If you are a numbers person, you would be reassured by the latest low unemployment rate of 3.7 percent.

Even more reassuring is that inflation remains within the 2 percent target the Fed likes to maintain. This means that the Federal Reserves rate-setting policies have been working optimally. The current interest rate is in the target range of 2 to 2.25 percent, which is effectively balancing the US economy - an achievement that is hard to maintain.

So now, we must ask if the Fed will hike the rate by 0.25 percent in their next meeting on the 19th as predicted? Before we examine the possibilities, we need first to understand why they would change the rate up or down in the first place?

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Here is the dense lesson (for those who dare/interested): short-term rates are a major tool in the Federal Reserve toolbox used to balance the US economy. The short-term rates affects the flow of cash into the economy functioning as a corrective balancer between recession and inflation.

In other words, the rate is set for the elusive goal of striking a balance between the two polar opposites: maximizing employment and keeping inflation in check. The Fed is the only body that has the authority and independence to do so.

Trump has put the Federal Reserve in his crosshairs. The US president has no authority over the Fed’s decision making regarding its benchmark interest rate. Yet, he made his views on the matter exceptionally clear tweeting his discontent of the Fed expected rate hike. Voicing his criticism is guaranteed by the First Amendment, but it doesn't make tweeting his unhappiness a good idea.

The grim outlook

The old Wall Street adage that bull markets don’t die of old age but rather get killed by the Federal Reserve sounds more like a prophecy at this point. The Federal Reserve had planned one more rate hike this year and three in the coming 2019. Increasing the rate too fast will slow down the economy risking a reversal in the trend of economic recovery.

The Fed intents on keeping the current trend of low unemployment and inflation levels going. So if the Fed doesn’t hike the rate, it might signal a less than confident economic outlook. Meaning that keeping the rate unchanged will be interpreted in part as a reversal of past projection of a strong future economic performance.

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Not only that, but it will also come across as if the Fed is kowtowing to the president. Such a perception will rob the Fed from its credibility and perceived independence.

On the other hand, if the Fed raises the rate, it might be ignoring the gathering storm on the economic horizon ensuring an unfavorable outcome for the already volatile market. The skittish market is already showing signs of a possible slow down. For the Fed to ignore the glaring sign is to apply the breaks when the market is already showing signs of sputtering.

Both outcomes are less than encouraging, but this analysis is not for its own sake, it is a predictive outlook that can inform short-term financial decisions on a personal level.

Your options

Risk-averse experts suggest putting any amount of money which is not needed within the next two years in CDs or savings accounts. As for long-term investments, according to experts, individuals should not panic and leave that money in the market as long as that budget is not needed in the next five to 10 years.

I must say, it is a sad state of affairs when working men and women have to pay for Trump’s freedom of speech from their own wealth. If the president cares for the wellbeing of the nation, he will stop taking to Twitter to launch his tirades against the Fed.

Trump’s ‘Russiagate’ and the looming Iran war

Wednesday, 5 December 2018 on Alarabiya.net

The Trump presidency has prematurely, yet effectively, entered into its lame-duck phase on the eve of the G-20 summit.

Instead of stepping into the spotlight of victory touting his new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), dubbed the USMCA, Trump was on his back foot contending with the fallout from the latest Michael Cohen revelation.

The optics were revealing, a president that is withdrawn walking with a heavy step and a preoccupied mind. America First approach is being challenged by Trump’s impending legal woes.

Cohen, the president’s former fixer and longtime lawyer, took Robert Mueller’s plea deal whereby confessing to lying to Congress about statements relating to the Trump organization’s dealings in Russia during the election campaign.

Reported details claim that he, Cohen, on behalf of the Trump organization was in contact with the Russians well into 2016. Cohen now claims, that during that time he was, in fact, negotiating a real estate deal which Vladimir Putin himself would have accepted a $50 million penthouse were the deal come to fruition. We now know that such a deal was never agreed upon.

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The significance of these revelations is in how it contradicts the assertions made by Trump while the Russia negotiations were taking place. During the campaign, Trump emphatically denied any dealings with Russia, leaving himself no wiggle room when he said: “For the record, I have zero investments in Russia.”

His stance after the revelation is he has not broken the law even if Cohen was telling the truth. As correct as that may be, the appearance of pay-for-play negotiations with Russia while being the Republican Party’s front-runner allows Russia undue leverage over him.

The Robert Mueller investigation into the Trump campaign’s Russia collusion allegations has been widening in scope. So far, five former Trump advisers and 26 Russian nationals have been indicted or entered a guilty plea among other persons and entities bringing the total 36, the latest of which is Michael Cohen.

The long and short of it is this: Trump is quickly sinking in political quicksand. The minutiae of how and why is not as important as what comes next. As much as I hate to make a prediction, I will be remiss not to reflect on possible short-term US foreign policy maneuvers.

If Republicans and Democrats both retreat to their political corners, come January, the new Democratic House of Representatives will have the necessary votes to initiate the impeachment process

Walid Jawad

Trump’s options

Trump inevitably will be mired in the muck of a Russiagate for months to come. Probably distracting him from effective presidential leadership for the rest of his term - and we are not even at the halfway mark yet. Knowing Trump, he will position himself to emerge victoriously, but will that include firing Mueller? It is possible but unlikely. Firing the special counsel is politically risky as it opens a Pandora’s Box of a constitutional crisis.

If Republicans and Democrats both retreat to their political corners, come January, the new Democratic House of Representatives will have the necessary votes to initiate the impeachment process. In the event the Democrats succeed in impeaching him, the majority Republican Senate will defeat any measure to impose judgment on him.

As it currently stands, it is safer for Trump to rely on Whitaker, the acting Attorney General, to squeeze Mueller into a corner in an attempt to limit the scope and depth of the investigation. Unfortunately for Trump, both options are a bit too late to be effective.

There are other options at his disposal, but none seem to be immediate and/or effective. Trump’s solution for his political conundrum might be in refocusing the nation’s attention on international challenges.

Local problem, international solution?

The US is becoming increasingly ineffective globally unless the prospect of war brings the US front and center back onto the international stage. Such a scenario should deflect away from Trump’s woes. When threatened or attacked, there are very few situations as powerful as war to unite a nation behind its leader; North Korea is a source of concern, ISIS and its ilk can be juicy targets, and Iran is egging the US on.

North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un is scheduled to meet with the US President in January or February. Trump will continue to claim victory in the name of peace as he shakes Kim’s hand. ISIS is a headless cancer of a lose terrorist organization. In the absence of a notorious villain leading ISIS, Trump doesn’t have a target. This leaves Iran as a top candidate.

On Saturday, Iran test-fired mid-range ballistic missiles for the first time this year. A less than smart tactic by the Mullahs. This is bad news for the suffering Iranian people. Americans are in agreement on the reality of the threat. Saudi Arabia is already in confrontation with the Iranian regime in Yemen, and Israel bombed Iranian targets in Syria only days ago.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted on Saturday “The Iranian regime has just test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile that’s capable of carrying multiple warheads. This test violates UNSCR 2231. Iran’s missile testing & missile proliferation is growing. We condemn this act and call upon Iran to cease these activities.”

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What currently would be a war of choice for the Trump administration, will turn into a war of necessity if the Iranian regime continues with its foolish threatening acts against the US, American interests in the region, and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been playing with fire in the straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Persian coast guard vessels repeatedly engaged in dangerous maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia temporarily halted oil shipment through the narrow strait of Bab el-Mandeb after the Iranian-backed Houthis militia attacked two of its oil tankers. While Iran hides behind its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen (among others) in its war of attrition, this time around the regime will not be able to avoid the threat of war if the Mullah continue with their reckless aggression.

The regime’s ill-advised escalation in this game of chicken with the US will probably end with war. Although Iran’s miscalculations can provide Trump with much-needed relief from his political troubles, no one will second guess his retaliatory actions if the regime continues down their current path of regional destruction. 

George H.W. Bush answering the call of duty: Liberating Kuwait

Special to Al Arabiya English

Sunday, 2 December 2018

The radio signal was fading in-and-out when I thought the AFRTC station announcer was asserting that president George H.W. Bush has lost his re-election bid to Bill Clinton. It was November of 1992 when I pulled to a side street off the Old Airport Road in Riyadh to find a spot for a clear radio signal. It was so, Bush lost. Inadvertently, I went back in memory reflecting on the events leading to that moment.

I remembered dismissing news of Saddam’s armies invading Kuwait as a joke when a friend broke the news to me. I remembered taping up the windows in my house in case shockwaves shatters them; standing in line to get gas masks. I remember the first siren in Riyadh and Sulaiman Al-Issa, the trusted newscaster, confirming the first incoming Iraqi missiles. Glued to the TV watching CNN’s continuous coverage of the war, I was reassured by the efforts of the American-led coalition.

The Gulf was in trouble. Saddam Hussein’s calculation was consistent with his understanding: the US would be agnostic on the matter. He was to overtake the small nation of Kuwait, and no one would be able to do anything about it. He didn’t factor King Fahad’s strategy of escalating the conflict to confront his army, one of the world’s top tear forces at the time. It was touch and go. US military leadership was not a foregone conclusion. At first, the US was not interested in engaging militarily in what it perceived to be a regional conflict. Besides, it would be a war of choice that requires political will and skillful finesse. Once Bush senior made his decision to take the US into war, Saddam’s days of expansionist adventures were to be over.

Effective and efficient

The American-led international force was effective and efficient in achieving its objective: drive Saddam’s army back, liberate Kuwait, and neutralize future threats. The internal argument within the administration was fierce. Strong voices demanded the US keep marching on to Baghdad to complete the job, as it were. Allowing Saddam to stay in power was perceived to be a mistake by many. Those same voices had a redo ten years later prompting the second Iraq war.

We can debate the pros and cons of those opposing views. Should the US have continued driving Saddam’s army further north to provide cover for Iraqis rising to topple Saddam? Would Arab leaders have felt betrayed by such unilateral actions and would have deemed the US an invading force of Arab lands? Would it have turned into an American war with perceived nefarious designs over oil reserves? Would it be reasonable to expect the war to continue to the present day? Perhaps. Fortunately for most and unfortunately for the oppressed Iraqis of the time, the man who had the ultimate say was a man of his word. Bush, the elder, completed the mission, packed his soldiers and left. The only remaining troops were those that were requested by Arab leaders within agreed upon objectives.

This made Bush the elder a legendary honorable figure albeit briefly. That chapter quickly turned into a mythical folktale as locals slowly forgot the details and collective senility blurred the names of the players. It didn’t help that Bush the father had a short-lived tenure as a one-term president. The forgotten story has consequential effects on the current wellbeing of most people in the Gulf States. He never took credit or boasted about his leadership and accomplishment — an honorable leader who is remembered fondly today by Americans of every political stripe.

George H. Bush’s death overnight at age 94 couldn’t have come in a more somber moment as US politics is taking a nosedive toward a day of reckoning. The contrast is glaring. The honor and grace by which this statesman led his nation is of a bygone era where true leaders fought over beliefs and came together over shared values; patriotism, truthfulness, and honer.

Humble, quiet dignity and kindness were traits evident to all who observer Bush, but yet, becoming the president of the free world was a product of political acumen and a healthy dose of competitiveness. His 40 years of public service were not the selfish kind seeking the spotlight for its own sake. In fact, his achievements included fighting in WWII where he was shot down into the Pacific ocean and had to be rescued by a submarine.

He headed the CIA taking on one of the most thankless and anxiety-ridden responsibilities in the nation. Political insiders praised his loyalty over eight years as Vice President to Ronald Reagan. His extraordinary success in leadership liberating Kuwait in 100 hours was like so many of his other accomplishments, forgotten. Today the US pauses to remind itself of the debt of gratitude it owes this man recalling the admirable acts of George H. Bush.

True, George H. had many impressive successes. But even when he didn’t, we can point to the honor by which he lost. Losing his reelection campaign was due in part to breaking his election promise to the American people when he famously said “Read. My. Lips. No new taxes!” As a result of the cost of liberating Kuwait and other compounding factors, he had to level with the nation in a televised address to renege on that promise. The American people made sure to punish him by voting for his challenger, Bill Clinton.

The legacy of George H. Bush will live on. Rest in peace for you have gone above and beyond the call of duty.

Climate change gamble: Betting against Mother Nature

Tuesday, 27 November 2018 on Alarabiya.net

I checked into my hotel room in Key Largo, Florida, earlier this week overlooking a Canal that opens to the Everglades. Sailboats and Dolphins against a backdrop of calm waters reflecting a fiery orange sunset. That magnificent view was disturbed by the sight of destruction below my balcony — debris littering the shoreline.

As I was walking on the brand new boardwalk I’ve noticed the telltale signs of destruction and rebuilding. The hotel wasn’t completely reopened with the east wing still under reconstruction. Talking to the locals was revealing. Many I spoke to mentioned “Irma” as if it were a family member. “If you take a boat out, you can’t follow the navigation because ‘Irma’ shifted all of the sandbars around,” said a local sailor exclaiming “the destruction goes beyond what you can see.”

Hurricane Irma is only one of the numerous weather systems born out of the increasingly volatile effects of climate change. The monstrous hurricane Irma of last year, 2017, along with this year’s hurricane Michael, claimed more lives in Florida than all of the preceding hurricanes combined since 2000. The destructive pattern is undeniable and no longer limited to harrowing stories of survival or statistical data of death. Most of us are removed from the suffering for now, but not for long. 

The fourth National Climate Assessment released by the White House on Friday paints a grim picture of wide-reaching effects on a national level. The devastating outlook on the economy, health and environment are increasing beyond localities hit by hurricanes or burnt town in out of control wildfires. Record rainfall, cold snaps and heatwaves are captured in exponentially increasing statistics and viral videos. They are now becoming the norm rather than the exception.

The Climate Report 

The Congressionally mandated report is a synthesis of research carried out by 13 US Federal agencies delivered to the President every four years. The most surprising finding is the loss of 10% of US GDP by 2100. There is not a specific date for when this will take place because the sequence of events has already started changing the economic cycle in more ways than one. The reports admit “The impacts of climate change beyond our borders are expected to increasingly affect our trade and economy, including import and export prices and US businesses with overseas operations and supply chains.” The global economic effects will be magnified as other nations suffer from their own slowdown. The effects are already happening. I’ve been watching cell phone footage of floodings in Saudi Arabia and killer cyclones in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. Climate change is a global problem that demands our immediate attention.

The fourth National Climate Assessment released by the White House on Friday paints a grim picture of wide-reaching effects on a national level. The devastating outlook on the economy, health and environment are increasing beyond localities hit by hurricanes or burnt town in out of control wildfires. Record rainfall, cold snaps and heatwaves are captured in exponentially increasing statistics and viral videos. They are now becoming the norm rather than the exception.

Walid Jawad

Although the report is limited to climate change effects within the US, it references the global nature of the problem. Although the US can not fix it alone, it has a leading role to live up to. If not for the sake of humanity, it should do so for selfish reasons realizing the symbiotic connection between the global and the local especially vulnerable communities. “Global action to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions can substantially reduce climate-related risks and increase opportunities for these populations in the longer term” the report asserts. 

Despite this objective warning from within the US administration, the White House economic growth plan relies heavily on an aggressive agenda to deregulate environmental policies. The conflict between this environmental doctrine and the report’s conclusion is stark. The chances of the White House reversing course is slim to none as president Trump is boastful about rolling back environmental regulation. He said last month by “we took regulations off that allow us to do things we would never have been able to do.”

There should be no more room for anyone to deny global climate change. It was always embarrassing when misguided US politicians deny global warming in responding to questions on their overseas visits. That embarrassment should turn into proactive objection as we all face deteriorating health and quality of life. This conclusion has been put forth by scientists over decades, confirmed by federal agencies, observed by all on the news and personally felt by an increasing number of people - and now it will start eating into everyone's bank account.

Short-term gains vs. long-term pains 

The moral question pitting short-term financial gains against long-term national well-being is coming to a head in the Oval Office. The four-year presidential election cycle favors short-term political gains. The chances of Trump winning his reelection bid is predicated on a number of factors including economic prosperity. Trump will double down on his environmental deregulation strategy after realizing the limited gains tax cuts delivered at the polls earlier this month in the midterm elections. Tax cuts disproportionately serve the rich. As mid and low-income taxpayers realize the limited personal benefits of those tax cuts the electorate will be less inclined to vote for him come November of 2020.

Upward mobility and job opportunities are yardsticks felt and understood by workers. Political slogans and genius social media campaigns can compel people in the short term, but their pocketbook is more persuasive. Fear politics is one political tool available to Trump, and he's making the most out of it. He’s invoking the “Wall” and sending troops to the southern border in a show of force against mostly downtrodden families fleeing violence in their homelands. The optics are unavoidable and the nation is taking notice, including his loyal base.

Trump tactics are reliant on that base. He is inducing a sense of division to keep his base engaged and fired up. This political strategy will only succeed if he can deliver on his promises for an “America First” leading to increased economic opportunities for the electorate. Environmental deregulation might cause better economic numbers between now and 2020, but it is an unsustainable tactic. He knows as well as we do of the impending economic slowdown. This conclusion is spelled out in black and white in the report his office published mere days ago. Betting against mother nature is ill-informed and potentially disastrous for the nation and the rest of the globe.

From gossip to fake news: A full circle incorporating state secrets

Tuesday, 20 November 2018 on Alarabiya.net

Gossip can be fun, but more importantly functional. Secrets are intriguing, while State secrets are consequential. Gossip played a functional and necessary role in conveying relevant information in the pre-mass media era. Personal survival and society-wide well-being required continuously maneuvering to avoid physical harm. As we evolved, gossip helped people navigate social structures for personal gains. In the area of mass media gossip is institutionalized in the hand of trusted media outlets but has lost its interactive nature.

Mass media is a one-way information machine; transmitting information from media organizations to the audience. Social media has changed that equation allowing people to go back to a more natural two-way communication style. Being exposed to information is only useful to the extent they are factual. Of course, now that we have discovered a “new-type” of information, Fake News, many became skeptical of most news media outlets. 

As we have been witnessing lately and specifically around elections, it’s a short hop from disinformation to a virally spreading misinformation accepted as truths on social media. Wholly or partially incorrect information disseminated intentionally to serve any number of purposes is not a new phenomenon. Decades ago when information was monopolized by mass media, Fake News was packaged within traditional media channels.

Wholly or partially incorrect information disseminated intentionally to serve any number of purposes is not a new phenomenon. Decades ago when information was monopolized by mass media, Fake News was packaged within traditional media channels

Walid Jawad

It was referred to as Yellow Journalism. The lines were clear. Today, disinformation; i.e. falsehoods presented as truths, become Fake News once it is widely referenced by others and accepted as truth without question Such lies don’t have to meet any standards or even be convincing, they only need to create doubt. Understandably, people don’t know what to believe anymore causing the truth to be lost. After all, who has time to research information for accuracy?

Now that we have discovered “Fake News” circa 2016, many doubt information uncovered by legitimate news outlets, all the while trusting none transparent sources; enter WikiLeaks.

The WikiLeaks War

Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, stepped into the spotlight this week when US prosecutors unintentionally revealed secretly filed criminal charges against him. The US government has waged war against Assange and his anti-secrecy organization. The US is more interested in killing the messenger, as it were, than pursuing the people who have committed the criminality of information theft; espionage or hacking.

The indictment which is under seal; i.e. the charges are secret, leaves us speculating on its content. News reports confirm the indictment is connected to the alleged Russia collusion investigation headed by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into the 2016 Trump presidential campaign. WikiLeaks shared hacked Democratic National Committee (DNC) emails, which is believed to be part of a Russian government-sanctioned attempt to damage Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in favor of advancing Trump chances of winning the presidency according to most accounts.

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Assange has been holed up inside the Ecuadorian Embassy in London since 2012 in an attempt to avoid prosecution in Sweden on sexual assault charges and possible extradition to the US. It is unclear if his framing of Clinton being a personal foe qualifies him to be delusional. But in his 2016 editorial on his WikiLeaks site, he wrote: "I have had years of experience in dealing with Hillary Clinton and have read thousands of her cables. Hillary lacks judgment and will push the United States into endless, stupid wars which spread terrorism. ... she certainly should not become president of the United States."

Thus, raising a critical question: was Assange exposing secrets for the sake of spreading knowledge or for personal gains; the former makes him a journalist and the latter a person with an agenda. The administration of former president Obama treated him as a journalist rather than an activist. The Mueller indictment suggests a shift in that approach.

Indeed, the Trump administration made Assange a target by reversing his WikiLeaks classification as a media organization. This is a critical step to allow the US government to go after Assange without the appearance of intruding on press freedoms. Mike Pompeo, as the top US spy at the time, locked onto Assange making him a CIA target conducting espionage against his organization over the past year according to a New York Times report. The administration is out of sync with Trump who had praised WikiLeaks numerous times during the 2016 campaign for releasing Democrats emails damaging Clinton. Further, Mr. Trump adamantly denies any collusion between his campaign and the Russians. He believes Mueller’s investigation is a “witch hunt” and “absolutely nuts.”

Who is not a Journalist?

Can the US government reclassify a journalist as “information broker” and what are the criteria a person or an organization must meet before being stripped from its media status? Pursuing legal options places the burden of proof on the government. Because US laws don't carry over to none Americans, Assange, who is Australian, has no legal recourse or right to due process.

As per the guarantees the American legal code offers freedom of speech, officials avoid facing the news media in the courts. It is much easier and more effective to use their bully pulpit to smear the media. Fake News is one way to render the press less effective, but it doesn’t stop their mission. Having the ability to strip journalists of their status can silence the media and at the same time turn a democracy into a society rotting with corruption and abuse of power.

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Days ago, a federal court ruled in favor of CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta after the White House revoked his access last week. The White House Press Corps is expected to ask the president the tough questions and pursue answers on behalf of the American people. Excluding a reporter on frivolous basis will not and should not be tolerated.

Pleading ‘fake news’ before the court

Unfortunately, allegations of Fake News is harder to stop. However, the silhouette of a silver lining is beginning to take shape. The casual observer will inevitably notice the pattern by which government officials invoke “Fake News.” They will soon conclude that only weak officials who are exposed by truthful reporting will always cry “Fake News.” Soon enough crying “Fake News” will be synonymous with crying “wolf!”

Constantly labeling legitimate reports 'fake news' was trumped by the president’s tweet last year branding news media as “the enemy of the American people.” The president’s freedom of speech is constitutionally guaranteed. The First Amendment guarantees the same right to every American except for inciting violence among other exceptions. Should we really be surprised when someone takes it upon themselves to act violently against the media? 

Resorting to the courts seem to have delivered a first-round win to the press in the Acosta case, but the fight is far from over. Although the legal system is a compelling option when available, it is the court of public opinion officials should fear the most.